Peak Oil
Petroleum constitutes a major energy source for the industrialized world. In the U.S. alone, our transportation systems rely on oil for ninety percent of its operations. In addition to the direct energy used in fuel and generators, petroleum is embodied in a whole host of products used in manufacturing processes associated with transportation. Crude oil is also a uniquely-suited material for the creation of plastics, lubricants, paints, and chemicals (including herbicides and pesticides). Such wide-spread use and reliance makes oil a truly-ubiquitous constituent of nearly every synthetic product.
Since oil is non-renewable and its supply is finite, it follows that we will run out someday. Indeed, the consensus among many geologists and energy analysts (including major oil companies such as Chevron), is that we have used up approximately half of all the petroleum that exists in the world – petroleum that has taken hundreds of millions of years to create.
Despite these alarming facts, the urgent question is not, “When will we run out of oil.” Indeed, the world will not likely run out of oil for at least the next hundred years or longer. Instead, the more important question asks, “When will we reach maximum production?” When we reach maximum production, oil reserves will begin an inexorable decline. Maximum production, and the ensuing decline in oil will be a tremendous shock for a global economy that relies on a continuous supply of oil.
Maximum production, known as “Peak Oil,” is not a controversial geological phenomenon. The phenomenon is documented as occurring on scales ranging from large fields to entire nations. The U.S. reached peak production in the early 1970s and has never regained its peak output, despite intense exploration and drilling, advanced technology, offshore and deepwater field development, and even additional production from Alaska.
Global peak oil is widely-recognized among scientists studying the issue. The U.S. Department of Energy commissioned a study of peak oil, its effects and strategies for mitigation (see Peaking of World Oil Production: Impacts, Mitigation and Risk Management, Hirsch et. al. [2005]). This report explains that currently, there is no substitute for petroleum as a primary energy source that matches petroleum’s ease of use, and energy density. Our nation’s infrastructure is enormously oil-dependent, in an increasingly oil-scarce world, without any single substance that would serve as a substitute. The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers has done its own analysis, Energy Trends and Their Implications for U.S. Army Installation, Westervelt and Fourneir [2005]).[1] Both of these reports address the severe predicament we will find ourselves in if we fail to act in anticipation of this natural limit.
The City Council approved my request to attend the Energy and Sustainability Conference[2] that took place May of this year in Washington, DC. The subject of the conference was “Peak Oil and the Environment.” The conference drew upon experts in geopolitics, energy, environmental trends, economics and geology, all of whom agreed that the peaking of world oil production would occur in the near future.
Here, the meaning of “near future” is informed by the work of energy analysts Robert Hirsch and Roger Bezdek (a conference presenter). Hirsch and Bezdek found that the U.S. would need 15 -20 years before petroleum peaks in order to bring substitutes online to compensate for the expected decline rate of production of 2-3% per year. [3] Despite this 15-20 year pre-peak timeframe needed to institute substitutes, many indicators point out that we may be nearing peak oil production within the next several years.
[Bloomington Common Council] Resolution 06-07 acknowledges the likelihood of global peak production in the near future. It recognizes that we need to consider this eventuality, and begin to prepare for a future with declining oil supplies. To this end, Resolution 06-07 urges an adoption of a global depletion protocol [4], to aid in avoiding the shocks, instability and competition that will otherwise occur without an orderly transition. It also urges State and federal representatives to recognize the problem and plan for it in a timely manner.
[1] Both reports are available in full in the electronic Legislative Packet; executive summaries are found in hard-copy Packets.
[2] http://www.beyondpeak.org/
[3] See Peaking of World Oil Production referenced above
[4] The Oil Depletion Protocol (Formerly known as the Rimini Protocol).
